The Election

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I believe that in the wake of the recent election outcome the field is exposed for the Conservative party.

I have 3 reasons for saying this. To start with, Ontario voters have realized in sufficient quantities that Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party aren't as terrifying as they were at one time.

The second rationale is that the Liberal party has shed their strength of being an well-known political. Die-hard Liberals may possibly still claim that the Liberal brand has a degree of value but
in reality a political party is a vehicle and if a party can't achieve office it is worthless.

Thirdly is the New
Democtratic PartyswellDemoctratic Partyswell was a really only a swell in Québec. Outside of la Belle Province the Conservatives picked up more seats, and where the New Democtratic Party did win outside Quebec they did so in areas that have always been open to the NDP.

They've now found themselves in the unenviable position of getting what they asked for. They rely for power on Quebec, but not on the rest of the country. If they don't attend to the hopes of the Quebecois their seats will either go back to the Bloc, or to a re-born Liberal party, or just as conceivably to the Conservatives.



The
Conservative Party can wrangle with the NDP over Quebec, or they can determine that we have come back to a country of two solitudes. The initiative at this time lies with them. If they make a decision to return the nation to two solitudes they can simply roleplay being decent without seriously satisfying Quebec's desires. Jack Layton and the New Democtratic Party will be required to be spokespeople for Québec and lock horns with the Feds on Québec's behalf.



If the PQ take power provincially in 2013 they will surely add their shrill voices to the NDP. That will just support the conservative position outside of Quebec, provided the Conservatives genuinely appear acting within reason. Prime Minister Harper has already demonstrated this is possible.

This leads toConservatives' 2nd opportunity. Quebec can be switched into a battlefield for ballots. After all, they have nothing to lose. Any poll they win they win from their opponents. Even more, they win it by inducing Quebec back into national decision making. Brian Mulroney showed that there are soft nationalists who are at easeconservative. His Achilles heel was that he had to reconcile western conservatives with Québec separatists. His effectiveness depended on exactly that. Opening the constitution allowing Quebec within Confederation. Doing this alienated traditional Western Conservatives, and led to the rise of Reform and the Bloc, and the self-destruction of the Mulroney's political machine.


Today the Conservatives don't need Quebec. They don't have to reopen any constitutional debate. They can just speak truth to power and tell Quebec that times have changed. Québec's best chance for success with Confederation and financial benefit from Canada lies with having influence inside cabinet. A
socialist/separatist Quebec won't hurt the Tories.


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