Dr. Stat's Buy Low/Sell High: Week 5

As Week 5 of the NFL season approaches, it's time to assess the value of certain fantasy football players. Whose value is low enough right now that you get them for less than they are worth? Whose value might be at its highest point of the season? I'll feature some players that fall under both categories here. For the record, I was correct last week about Chris Chambers, Thomas Jones and Felix Jones and was wrong about MJD. This week I'm stepping it up with some bolder predictions.

BUY LOW

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers

I've received a number of questions regarding my thoughts on Grant, as fantasy owners are disappointed that their late first/early second round pick is averaging 46.5 yards per game and has yet to score through four games. However, I have confidence in Grant turning his season around. This past week was the first time that he wasn't on the injury list this season and Green Bay's offense fizzled badly against Tampa Bay, gaining just eight first downs and 181 total net yards. While Grant's 20 yards on 15 carries certainly didn't help matters, it was his first real test this season. After a strong Week 1 (12 rushes, 92 yards, including a long 57-yard run), Grant was hampered by his hamstring injury. Also, it's important to remember that Grant started slow last season, as three of his first five games were nothing special. Yet he finished the season with five 100-yard games, eight touchdowns and a 5.1 YPC average. Look for him to kick things into another gear and have a strong game and his first touchdown(s) of the season against Atlanta this week. If Grant's owner in my league seems panicky or is shopping him around, I'm betting on Grant turning things around and buying low.

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

If I told you in early August that J.T. O'Sullivan would have a better QB ranking that Manning four weeks into the season, you'd have laughed at me and asked who JTO was. Now he, JaMarcus Russell, Kyle Orton and numerous others rank above Manning in many statistical categories. Manning, a second round pick in the average draft, has thrown for 784 yards and more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3). Blame the new Lucas Oil Stadium if you want, but I have supreme confidence in Peyton. Why? Because he has yet to give us a reason not to be over the last ten seasons. We know that Manning hates losing, is a die-hard competitor, works hard and is good at overcoming adversity. His offensive line has been beat up and the Jaguars limited Indy to barely over 18 minutes of possession in Week 3. Thanks to his comeback leading drive in Week 2, the Colts would be 2-1 instead of 1-2 if it wasn't for a 53-yard Josh Scobee field goal. Things are not as bad as you think; the Colts and Manning will be fine. Coming off a bye week, Tony Dungy will have his team prepared for Houston and the rest of the season. The Colts schedule is tough, but Manning thrives on being challenged and has his talented receiving corps healthy.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons

Outside of a 70-yard touchdown catch in Week 3, White has only put together one impressive game, his 7 catch/90 yard performance last week. However, White is a player I'd love to own in any fantasy league. Among all receivers, White is 12th in targets for the season. Falcons' QB Matt Ryan has attempted 105 passes this season, and 33 of them have been targeted at White. In fact, White received 16 targets on Sunday, second only to Terrell Owens. In the Falcons two wins, they ran all over the opposition and Ryan attempted 13 and 18 passes. In their two losses, Ryan threw 33 and 41 times. Which do you think Atlanta will have more of from here on out, blowout wins or attempted comebacks? They can't run all over everyone, meaning they'll get down and have to throw the ball a lot, which translates into many more targets for White. We know he has the speed and the ability to get open, so his numbers should only go up as he builds chemistry with Ryan and the Falcons find themselves trailing more often.

SELL HIGH

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Has Dr. Stat lost his mind? Why would anyone want to trade the league's leading rusher? Before you call the asylum to commit me, hear me out as I seek to appeal to your logical side. For the record, I love the guy, but man-crushes don't get me fantasy points. First of all, Turner has had two monster games and two ho-hum games. In Atlanta's two wins, he's averaged 10.0 and 4.5 YPC. In Atlanta's two losses, he had barely over a 3.0 YPC average. Somewhere in the middle lies Turner's true value. Second, as I said earlier, the Falcons will find themselves down and throwing the ball more, meaning they won't be able to fully utilize their best weapon, Turner. Third, Turner has already rushed 77 times this season, only three fewer than his former season-high. While he's obviously in great shape, we've never seen him have to shoulder a huge load for an entire season. If I haven't convinced you yet, look at the big picture. If your league playoffs start in Week 15, Turner plays Tampa Bay that week and Minnesota the next. He rushed 14 times for 42 yards against the Bucs in Week 2, a line that was inflated with a 17-yard run. I just want you to realize the odds you're playing there. Turner's value is sky high and you should be able to land yourself a strong package of players to fill out your team. That #1 beside Turner's name in your rankings looks nice, but consistency, not rankings, wins fantasy championships.

J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers

O'Sullivan seems to find his way into my columns on a regular basis, but this will likely be the last time this season. He's turned out to be much more impressive than I expected, but the time has come to part ways with Mr. O'Sullivan if you have another good QB option. Not that he hasn't played well, but Detroit and New Orleans aren't exactly the toughest tests for a quarterback and his schedule is about to get a lot more difficult (New England, Philadelphia, NY Giants, Seattle). His offensive line can't be trusted (JTO has been sacked a league-high 19 times) and Mike Martz is actually running the football (Gore is averaging 19 carries per game). O'Sullivan will continue to be a good QB this year, but no better than any top-15 fantasy QB. Trade him to a team that needs QB help, such as the dude that drafted Brady, Palmer or Anderson, and strengthen another position on your team.

I'M NOT GIVING UP ON

Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns

Thanks to terrible QB play and an offense that is dead last in offense (210.8 YPG), Winslow is on pace for over 400 fewer yards and 4.6 fewer YPC than last season. His 42.5 YPG and single touchdown has some owners who took him in the fifth round (on average) hurting and wondering if it's time to add another tight end and play the matchups until Brady Quinn gets a shot, or just trade him altogether. However, look beyond his overall yardage and notice that he's caught five or more passes in three of the Browns' four games and is only on pace for six fewer catches this season. In fact, Winslow has seen just as many targets (37) as Jason Witten, as the two are tied for first in that department. Derek Anderson's poor play has affected everyone in Cleveland, but it hasn't affected Winslow as much as some might think. Hopefully the Browns will take advantage of the bye week and get their offense in sync, but you can continue to play Winslow with confidence.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Thomas Jones didn't start in Week 4 and saw his YPC drop for the third straight game, while Leon Washington seems to have taken over on third downs and passing downs. If I own Jones as a third running back or flex play, I can't trade him fast enough. Edgerrin James finally got two goal-line carries on Sunday, while Tim Hightower received one. Reggie Bush will likely see a major cutback in his carries, thanks to Deuce McAllister's sudden resurrection, so I'd consider shopping him in non-PPR leagues. Earnest Graham topped 100 yards on Sunday, thanks to a 47-yard scamper, while Warrick Dunn gained 63 yards on 16 carries. Arnaz Battle went for 7/120 on Sunday, but don't expect the same against New England this week.

About the author:
Dr. Stat is a fantasy sports expert. Many people say, he gives the best fantasy football advice and he's also a contributor for rootzoo's fantasy football news section.