The Trader's Crystal Ball

Future Market Predictions

When trading, the prudent thing to do is to examine present price activity and compare it with past price history and with price action in interrelated markets to then come up with educated assumptions and trading ideas based upon what markets have the potential to do in the near future. You can get some reliable short-term forecasts with a high degree of probability with an analytical trading tool like VantagePoint.

The following predictions are based upon technical analysis, inter-market analysis, market psychology, and some market fundamentals.

Corn: This market has still more upside in the coming months, probably above $7 a bushel. Reason: Market supply and demand fundamentals are still extremely bullish for corn. Any weather market scares this summer could find corn futures prices extremely explosive on the upside. Remember that in many more years than not, some significant degree of a weather scare does affect the grains. The corn futures market has already experienced a weather rally during the planting and early growing season due to wet conditions in the Corn Belt causing planting delays.

The continuous futures chart for corn shows prices are still in a strong uptrend amid no early clues of a market top being close at hand.

Wheat: Prices have still more downside potential in the coming weeks, down to the $7 per bushel area, or below, basis July Chicago futures. Reason: Downtrends are firmly in place on the charts. Also, the worldwide supply and demand fundamentals in wheat have peaked out on the bullish side of the equation, and the pendulum is swinging back toward the bearish camp.
The continuous futures chart for nearby Chicago wheat shows the steep downtrend from the winter-time highs clearly. Note there is strong longer-term technical support just below the previous all-time high of $7.50 a bushel recorded in the mid-1990s.
S&P 500 Index: In the coming weeks nearby S&P 500 stock index futures prices will trade between longer-term technical resistance at the recent high of 1,440.70 and longer-term technical support at 1,364. My bias is that the uptrend will turn into a choppy trading range this summer, providing for some good "swing trading" opportunities in the stock indexes this summer.

Erik is a day trader using Intermarket Analysis as a trading foundation. He uses VantagePoint software to predict market moves in the Forex, Futures, and commodities markets.