Which weapon are terrorists most likely to use?
It's impossible to predict with any degree of
certainty what approach a terrorist group might
use to launch a chemical or biological attack.
This is what makes it such a frightening threat.
It can be anywhere, anytime and in any number of
forms.
However, there are some clues available to us which
can help us understand a little more about the most
likely approach.
Nerve agents (like Sarin) and vesicant agents (like
Mustard gas) are relatively difficult to produce.
The Chemical Weapons Convention makes it hard to
buy these agents and the ingredients needed to produce
them. This probably rules these two categories out.
On the other hand, a chemical such as phosgene
(a choking agent), is easy to find and produce.
However, choking agents are volatile and therefore
disperse quickly in the air. This means that the terrorists
would have to deliver it in a high concentration to
have the effect of maximum impact they'd be aiming for.
A possible scenario in this case would be to blow up
a tanker full of the gas (or a chemicals plant) in a
busy area.
This, however, introduces complications for the
terrorists. They would need to smuggle a large bomb
into a chemical plant or drive a tanker full of toxic
chemicals into a densely populated area and then blow
it up. With the nation on high alert, one would expect
that such attacks would be very difficult to execute.
It's possible that terrorists would use anthrax in an
attack. If so, a conceivable approach would be the use of
a crop-duster. Why? Because anthrax isn't contagious
(it doesn't spread easily from person to person) like
most other biological agents. This means that they would
need to directly spread the bacteria onto as many people
as possible.
However, while the thought of anthrax being poured down
onto a city from a passing airplane is chilling, it's
unlikely to happen.
It would take a lot of time to release significant amounts
of anthrax using this approach, and the US Air Force
would eliminate the threat very quickly.
It's worth remembering that you would need to inhale
large amounts of anthrax before it becomes fatal. To
put things in perspective, wool sorters inhale up to
700 anthrax spores every hour without any consequences -
in order for anthrax to reach lethal levels, you'd need
to inhale up to 10,000 spores with every breath.
If the terrorists were to use anthrax, they would most
likely release it inside a building where a dense
concentration of the agent can be more easily achieved.
While this approach would create considerable fear and
panic, the casualties would be minimized because those
affected could get immediate medical treatment. Again,
such an attack would be quite difficult to trigger off.
Another, perhaps more likely, scenario is that the
terrorists would initiate the spread of a contagious
disease. This would most likely happen unnoticed. Only
when more and more people start exhibiting the same
symptoms would the alarm be raised. By then the disease
may have spread very considerably.
If there's no treatment available for the disease, or
if it were a new, more resistant strain of an existing
disease, then the fear, panic and death objectives of
the terrorist would be achieved.
Smallpox would appear to be a prime candidate in this
category. However, there are only two living samples of
smallpox available in the world. One in a secure
laboratory the US and one in Russia. Even though there
are some concerns over security at the Russian laboratory,
it's still unlikely that the terrorists will attempt to
steal the sample and launch a smallpox attack.
It's more likely that they would take the easier route
and spread a contagious disease like bubonic plague.
Such an attack would be cheap and easy to launch and would
create considerable panic among the general population.
While the effects of such an attack would be very traumatic,
the emergency services should be able to move quite quickly
to get the situation under control.
Experience tells us that, whatever approach the terrorists
use, two things are sure: they will aim to create maximum
fear and intimidation and they will aim for a target where
they can cause maximum symbolic and material destruction.
That is, after all, the nature of terrorism.
About The Author:
Nathalie Hopkins is a writer and journalist and is author
of "How To Survive A Chemical Or Biological Attack".
Download your copy of this essential guide to
protecting yourself and your family at:
http://www.chemical-biological-attack-survival-guide.com
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