bloodied in black and white, lynch senior politicians in full view
of cameras. The parliament building is smoking. When empires die -
and Yugoslavia has always been a Serbian empire - they do not
explode. They reverberate and rumble and collapse upon themselves.
They shed gangrenous organs - molested provinces, mutilated colonies
and rageful subjects. They constrict and fold and crumble, often
with deafening silence. An obituary of dust and sepia photographs.
But the shock-wave front of violent convulsions, political
contortion and geopolitical extortion never stops. It hits the
nucleus, the kernel of empire. The British Empire may have commenced
its ugly disintegration in India and Palestine - but it is bound to
end it in Scotland and in Wales (perhaps even in London). Rome was
obliterated by the very forces it unleashed in its contraction. The
USSR gave way to Russia only to have Russia, in turn, confront
rebellious regions and republics. Serbia is threatened by the
distant echoes of the death of Yugoslavia.
When the nucleus is threatened - people resort to all manner of self- interested intolerance. The apocalyptic horses of chauvinism,
nationalism, corruption and genocide often rear their heads on such
occasions. Hence the Yugoslav wars of succession, from Slovenia to
Kosovo.
Serb politicians - Kustonica not excepted - are fervent
nationalists. They differ on tactics, never on strategic goals.
Milosevic is being deposed because he failed - not because he tried.
Nationalism is a profitable proposition in the dilapidated rump of
Yugoslavia. Patriotism and villainy have never been more closely
allied. Ultra-nationalism wins elections. Its proponents loot the
state with full impunity. "Elections" in Yugoslavia are called when
two criminal gangs attempt to re-define their turf. Kustonica is
nothing but a soft-spoken version of Milosevic. The West is in for
the nastiest surprise.
Milosevic will go. He may well lose his life (and his whole family)
in this last stand. Kustonica (or someone wilier) may yet replace
him. But the inexorable historical process of this imploding empire
will not desist. The Albanians of Kosovo will not accept this
unexpected setback in their plans for independence (and the
surreptitiously appropriated foreign aid that comes with statehood).
As I have written in this space in June 1999, Milosevic was their
best ally, their symbiont. With their main cohesive factor gone,
they will turn upon each other and, more so, upon the un- accommodating West. KFOR and UNMIK are the Albanian's new enemies,
the only thing standing between them and a Serb-less future. This
realignment of alliances is likely to yield the most outlandish
collaborations - for instance, between those faithful to Milosevic
and Seselij and the former KLA.
And then there are the Montenegrins. Ruled by yet another mafia,
they also crave the spoils of statehood. Yet, the West is likelier
to lavish aid and credits on a united Yugoslavia then on the
isolated smuggling post that Montenegro is. There's more to gain by
returning to the fold. I have no doubt, therefore, that Montenegrin
independence is as short-lived as its arch-enemy, Milosevic.
Yugoslavia will survive. Reduced to writhing remnants of their
former selves, all empires do. Milosevic will soon be a distant
memory. A low-key war will simmer in Kosovo for years to come.
Another cadre of politicians will loot the state and strip it of its
assets. Whomever replaces Milosevic will go to war with neighbours
near and far. It is the nature of the Balkan. Mismanagement,
corruption and venality - the growth industries of this accursed
region - will thrive. As they have always done - and always will.